Highest temperature in NYC on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is bracing for its peak summer heat as traders assess the highest temperature likely recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 14 July 2026. The market currently implies a 0% probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, despite a recent, record-shattering heatwave across the East Coast that broke 154-year-old highs in July 2026[2]. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows LaGuardia frequently hits mid-90s Fahrenheit in mid-July, with the current frontrunner in the broader market being the 96–97°F range at 54% probability, followed by 94–95°F at 32%[3].

The consensus leans heavily toward the 96–97°F bracket, yet the 0% implied probability on this specific contract suggests a potential mispricing or a contrarian angle where the range is set too low or too high relative to the prevailing heat. Traders should monitor real-time temperature feeds from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in the 94–95°F or 96–97°F odds as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 14 July[3]. With the heatwave having already shattered long-standing records across a 500-mile corridor, the value spot may lie in betting against the crowd’s dismissal of extreme temperatures if the 96–97°F range remains the dominant favourite[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.