Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City faces its annual mid-July heat peak as traders assess the likelihood of the highest temperature at LaGuardia Airport reaching specific thresholds on 17 July 2026. The market currently shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the defined winning range, yet the frontrunner for the actual reading is 86–87°F at 35% probability, with 88–89°F holding 30% [1]. This divergence between the binary YES probability and the detailed temperature distribution indicates the consensus is heavily skewed toward cooler outcomes, potentially overlooking the statistical frequency of mid-80s highs in NYC during this period.

Historical data from LaGuardia shows that mid-July often produces temperatures in the 85–90°F range, making the 0% YES probability appear contrarian against typical seasonal patterns [2]. While the market treats the event as unlikely, the value spot may sit in backing the 86–87°F or 88–89°F ranges, which collectively command 65% of the market’s attention [1]. Traders should watch for early-week heat dome announcements from the National Weather Service, as these systems frequently drive temperatures above 85°F in the Northeast. A recent forecast update from the NWS indicates a potential ridge of high pressure building over the region by mid-week, which could act as the primary catalyst for a spike in temperatures [2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.