Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 2 July 2026, the LaGuardia Airport Station will record its peak Fahrenheit temperature, a real-world metric that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The crowd-implied probability for the highest range sits at 0% YES, suggesting the consensus expects temperatures well below the upper thresholds. However, historical data frames this as a contrarian value spot rather than a dead certainty. In 1966, LaGuardia climbed to 101°F on this date, and Central Park recently tied a record by hitting 100°F on 2 July, the first time since 1966 [1][7]. With July 2026 forecasts showing daily highs ranging from 81° to 99° at the airport, the market may be underpricing the likelihood of a heat spike that breaches the 98–99°F bucket, which currently holds 29.5% liquidity in a fragmented ten-bucket structure [3][4].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts and thin liquidity conditions, which create volatility in this specific heat market [3]. The primary catalyst is the potential for a heat wave to intensify, as seen when New York recently hit 100 degrees, stifling the region with dangerous conditions [1]. While AccuWeather projects overnight lows between 68° and 83°, the upper limit of 99° remains a critical threshold to watch for any sudden deviation [4]. If a heat wave similar to the recent record-breaking event in New York and New Jersey develops, the 0% implied probability could shift rapidly, offering significant value for those betting on the higher temperature ranges [7]. The settlement window ending in 2026 allows ample time for these atmospheric dependencies to resolve, making the current pricing potentially inefficient.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.