Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s LaGuardia Airport is set to record its peak temperature for 20 July 2026, with the market currently pricing an 82–83°F outcome at 100% probability, effectively rendering all other ranges, including “69°F or below”, as 0% favourites. This near-total consensus treats the upper-80s as the only viable contender, dismissing cooler scenarios as statistical noise.

Historically, mid-July highs at KLGA cluster tightly between 78°F and 86°F, with 82°F representing the median over the past two decades; extreme cool snaps below 70°F are virtually unheard of in this window. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for the lowest range aligns with this pattern, suggesting the market is correctly anchored to seasonal norms rather than chasing contrarian value on improbable outliers.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast for the New York metropolitan area, particularly any shifts in wind direction or cloud cover that could suppress daytime heating. A recent update from The Weather Network already forecasts a 27°C (81°F) peak for 20 July with 0% precipitation and northerly winds, reinforcing the 82–83°F favourite; any deviation from this dry, sunny profile would be the primary catalyst for a repricing.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.