Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 3 July 2026, LaGuardia Airport will record its peak daily temperature in degrees Fahrenheit, a single data point that determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome below 100°F. This stark consensus implies traders believe extreme heat is inevitable, yet the underlying real-world event is simply a summer day in New York where temperatures fluctuate based on cloud cover, humidity, and wind patterns rather than a guaranteed scorching record.

Historically, LaGuardia has seen 107°F on 3 July 1966, its highest ever, while recent years show daily highs typically ranging between 81°F and 99°F, with July 2026 forecasts predicting a similar spread [4][7]. The crowd’s 100% confidence in the 100–101°F range ignores the volatility of recent heat waves, such as the 96°F recorded at LaGuardia on 2 July 2026, which tied a record but fell short of the 100°F threshold [6]. Contrarian value likely sits in the 97°F or below range, where the market assigns zero probability despite the historical average suggesting such outcomes remain plausible.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for LaGuardia, particularly the 5:29 AM sunrise and 8:30 PM sunset times, which influence solar heating intensity [5]. Recent reports from Fox Weather highlight that LaGuardia recorded its warmest midnight ever at 94°F, proving that heat can persist overnight and elevate daytime peaks, yet this does not guarantee a 100°F+ maximum [3]. The key dependency is whether the current heat wave, which saw Newark hit 99°F and JFK reach 100°F on 2 July, sustains or breaks before the settlement window closes [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.