Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the LaGuardia Airport station will determine whether New York City’s peak temperature falls into the highest recorded range, a real-world event that hinges on summer heat intensity rather than a simple binary outcome. The crowd-implied probability for the “YES” range sits at 0%, reflecting a consensus that the temperature will not reach the extreme threshold, yet historical data suggests this may be an underpriced underdog scenario. In July, LaGuardia has recorded highs as extreme as 107°F on 3 July 1966, and recent records show a midnight temperature of 94°F—the city’s warmest ever—indicating that heat can persist overnight with no relief, a pattern that often precedes record daytime peaks [2][4].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for LaGuardia, particularly the 12:50 pm reading of 91°F, which signals a strong upward trend toward the extreme range [1]. The key catalyst is the forecast for July 2026, which predicts daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, with overnight lows as high as 83°F, suggesting that heat retention could push the maximum temperature beyond consensus expectations [7]. Recent reports from Fox Weather confirm that LaGuardia has already broken old records, reaching 104°F on a recent day, just three degrees shy of the all-time peak, reinforcing the value in contrarian bets that the 4 July temperature will exceed the implied 0% probability [8]. The value spot lies in betting against the crowd’s certainty, as the data shows heat is not only possible but increasingly likely in this period.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.