Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak Fahrenheit reading at LaGuardia Airport on 5 July 2026, a date historically prone to intense summer heat. While the current crowd-implied probability for the highest temperature sits at 0% for the YES outcome (likely referring to a specific high-range bet), the market consensus heavily favours the 80–81°F range at 27%, with 82–83°F trailing closely at 26%[1]. Historical data shows LaGuardia has recorded extreme highs, including a recent midnight temperature of 94°F and days where both LaGuardia and Newark hit 104°F, proving that heatwaves can push temperatures well beyond the 80s[4][8]. This suggests the 0% implied probability for the highest range may be a contrarian value spot, as the consensus underestimates the likelihood of a record-breaking day.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service forecast for Central Park and any emerging heat index announcements, as these often dictate the peak temperature trajectory. Recent volume in similar markets remains thin, with only $5,602 recorded for the 84–85°F range, which sits at 34.5% odds despite the narrow two-degree spread[3]. The dependency on Wunderground data for LaGuardia means any sudden shifts in local humidity or cloud cover could drastically alter the final reading. Given the historical precedent of 97°F maximums recorded on 5 July in previous years, the value likely sits in the higher ranges where the market is currently underpricing the risk of an extreme heat spike[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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Is this market available outside the US?

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How fast are USDC deposits?

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Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.