Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is a single-day temperature cap at LaGuardia Airport on 7 July 2026, where the market resolves if the peak hits a specific high range. With the crowd-implied probability sitting at just 4% for the “YES” outcome, the consensus heavily favours the underdog scenario of a cooler day, assuming typical July variability. However, recent history suggests this probability may be undervalued; LaGuardia recently shattered its own records during an intense East Coast heatwave, reaching 102°F and setting a new midnight high of 94°F, proving the station can sustain extreme heat far beyond seasonal averages[1][2].

Traders should watch for the continuation of this persistent heatwave, as the current atmospheric ridge has already driven temperatures to 104°F at LaGuardia, surpassing the 1966 daily high[4]. The key catalyst is the stability of this ridge over the next few days; if the high-pressure system remains locked in, the likelihood of another record-breaking peak increases significantly. Recent reports from Fox Weather confirm that the heat lingered into the night, breaking daily records and establishing the station’s highest midnight temperature ever, indicating a systemic shift rather than a fleeting spike[1][5]. Value likely sits on the contrarian side, betting that the 4% price fails to account for the station’s demonstrated capacity to exceed 100°F under current conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.