Highest temperature in NYC on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 8 July 2026, the LaGuardia Airport Station will record its highest temperature in degrees Fahrenheit, a real-world event that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The crowd currently assigns a 0% implied probability to the YES outcome, reflecting a consensus that the temperature will not reach the specified threshold. This stance aligns with the prevailing view that July 8 will be cooler than the extreme heatwave that peaked on July 3, when LaGuardia hit 104°F, shattering a 60-year record[1].

Historically, LaGuardia has seen temperatures above 100°F on only four occasions since 1953, with the most recent being July 3, 2026, and June 24, 2025[9]. The July 2026 heatwave was unprecedented, killing 29 people in New Jersey and breaking records across a 500-mile East Coast corridor[1]. Yet, by July 8, temperatures had already moderated; the station recorded a maximum of just 76°F on that day, according to Weather Underground[8]. This sharp drop suggests the market’s 0% probability may be too conservative, as even a brief return to 100°F would overturn the consensus.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climate summaries for LaGuardia, which track record-breaking highs and provide real-time data[6]. While no official announcements are expected, the dependency on Wunderground’s final daily reading means any discrepancy between forecast and actual could shift value. Recent reports from FOX Weather confirm LaGuardia reached 102°F on July 4, with midnight temperatures hitting 94°F, a record for the airport[2]. If similar conditions reappear on July 8, the 0% probability could represent a significant value spot for contrarian traders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.