Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market seeks to identify which temperature band will contain the highest reading at LaGuardia Airport on 12 June 2026. The crowd is pricing this at 100% certainty that *some* temperature will be recorded that day, which reflects the mechanical reality that the airport's weather station operates continuously and will register a high temperature regardless of conditions.

New York City's June climate shows considerable year-to-year variation. Historical data from LaGuardia reveals June highs typically range between 75°F and 90°F, with an average around 80°F. The 30-year normal high for mid-June sits near 79°F, though the station has recorded extremes from 61°F to 97°F during the month. The 100% probability reflects not a forecast of unusually hot weather but rather the certainty of measurement itself—the settlement mechanism depends on Wunderground's historical records, which will capture whatever temperature occurs.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts as June 2026 approaches, particularly the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indices, which influence eastern US summer temperatures months in advance. The National Weather Service typically issues 30-day outlooks in mid-May that could signal whether June leans warmer or cooler than climatology. Any significant market movement would likely reflect traders positioning on which specific temperature band resolves, rather than on whether a temperature will be recorded at all. The 100% crowd probability leaves no room for contrarian positioning on the binary outcome itself.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.