Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak heat recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, a date historically prone to mid-summer spikes but currently priced with zero chance of exceeding the highest threshold. Historical data frames this 0% implied probability as an outlier; June 2026 forecasts suggest daily highs swinging between 77°F and 92°F, with the average high for the month sitting comfortably below the extreme range[3]. Recent prediction markets on adjacent dates, such as the 19 June event resolving at 82–83°F and the 7 June market settling at 86°F or below, demonstrate that temperatures frequently breach the mid-80s, making a blanket dismissal of higher ranges statistically fragile[1][2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service climatological normals, which record a maximum of 84°F for this specific date in 2025, yet note the absolute record of 101°F, indicating significant volatility potential[5]. The primary catalyst is the incoming weather pattern for late June, as climate data shows New York often hits its seasonal peak on 26 June at 83.6°F, suggesting the 24 June window is a prime value spot for contrarian long positions if a heatwave develops[8]. With consensus firmly anchored on the lower end, the value likely sits in the 87–88°F range, where the market may be underpricing the likelihood of a transient heat spike before the month’s official peak.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.