Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

On 26 June 2026, LaGuardia Airport will record its peak daily temperature in degrees Fahrenheit, a real-world event that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The crowd currently assigns a 0% implied probability to the “YES” outcome, suggesting consensus that the temperature will fall outside the favoured range. This stark valuation mirrors recent volatility: just three days prior, on 23 June, the high settled at 74–75°F[1], while earlier in the month on 11 June, it surged to 94–95°F[2]. Such swings indicate that June highs in NYC are not stable, making the 0% line potentially an overreaction to the most recent cool day rather than a true reflection of seasonal risk.

The key catalyst for traders is the incoming weather pattern for late June, particularly any shift toward the Atlantic subtropical ridge that typically drives heatwaves into the Northeast. According to AccuWeather’s June 2026 forecast for LaGuardia, daily highs are expected to range between 77°F and 92°F, with the average high hovering near 84°F[5]. This contradicts the market’s extreme bearish stance. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, which will confirm whether the 71°F high recorded on 26 June was an anomaly or part of a cooling trend[7]. If the ridge strengthens, the value spot lies in betting against the 0% consensus, as the underdog heat scenario remains statistically plausible.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.