Highest temperature in NYC on June 6?

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Market context

The market is pricing the peak temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 6 June 2026 at 0% probability across all ranges, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. New York's early June climate typically produces highs between 75°F and 85°F, with the historical median around 79°F. The airport's recording station, positioned on the tarmac with minimal shade, often registers 2–4 degrees higher than Manhattan's urban core due to heat island effects and exposure. Since the market settles on the single highest reading for the entire day, even brief afternoon spikes matter; the 0% crowd probability likely reflects the challenge of predicting a specific temperature range rather than directional confidence.

June weather in the Northeast remains volatile at the seasonal cusp between spring and summer. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, typically issued five to seven days before the settlement date, will provide the first meaningful signal—particularly whether a high-pressure system or Atlantic moisture dominates. Traders should monitor late-May pattern guidance from the Climate Prediction Center, which often telegraphs whether the first week of June will run above or below the 30-year normal. Any tropical system tracking northward in early June could suppress temperatures significantly, whilst a stalled Bermuda high would push readings well into the upper 80s or low 90s. Historical precedent shows LaGuardia has recorded June highs as low as 68°F and as high as 94°F, establishing a wide but bounded range for settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.