Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

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Market context

The crowd is pricing the peak temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 7 June 2026 at 0% probability across all ranges, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. This market resolves based on historical weather data recorded at the airport's official station, with settlement occurring at midday on the event date itself.

New York's early June climate typically produces highs in the mid-to-upper 70s Fahrenheit, with 80°F+ days occurring roughly 30–40% of the time during this period. The National Weather Service's 30-year normals show 7 June averaging around 77°F, though the historical record for any early June day in the city reaches into the low 90s. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects either a missing range option in the market structure or traders awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital. Historical analogue years—particularly warm Junes like 2021 and 2022—saw multiple days exceed 85°F, establishing that above-normal temperatures are neither rare nor extreme for this calendar date.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center typically releases its monthly outlook roughly two weeks before June begins, providing the first systematic signal for whether the month will trend warmer or cooler than normal. Traders should monitor late May forecasts from the National Weather Service's New York office, which publishes extended outlooks five to seven days ahead. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 will shape broader atmospheric patterns, though single-day temperature outcomes remain inherently difficult to predict beyond a week in advance.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.