Highest temperature in NYC on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 24 May 2026 at 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a technical issue with the market setup or extreme confidence in a specific outcome that has not yet been defined. May 24th falls in late spring for New York City, a period when daily highs typically range between 70–80°F (21–27°C), though readings can occasionally exceed 85°F on warmer years. The crowd's complete rejection of all outcomes warrants scrutiny, as historical data from the National Weather Service shows LaGuardia has recorded highs between 68°F and 89°F on this calendar date over the past three decades, with no single temperature range dominating sufficiently to justify zero probability across the board.

Seasonal patterns favour moderate temperatures in late May, with the city transitioning toward summer heat but not yet experiencing the sustained warmth of June and July. The Atlantic hurricane season begins on 1 June, meaning tropical systems remain unlikely to influence conditions on 24 May, though occasional nor'easters can still occur. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of anomalous warming or cooling patterns developing in the weeks prior. Recent climate data from NOAA indicates no systematic shift in late-May temperatures for the Northeast, keeping historical norms as the baseline expectation. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground's historical records from LaGuardia, making data availability the primary dependency once the date passes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.