Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 24 July 2026, with settlement based on historical weather data from Wunderground. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or a technical issue with the market structure rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

July temperatures at Le Bourget typically range between 18°C and 27°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching 30°C during heat waves. The 2003 European heat wave saw Paris record 40.3°C, though such extremes remain rare. Most years see peak July temperatures cluster in the 24–28°C band. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects traders waiting for clearer range definitions or seasonal forecasts rather than a genuine belief that no temperature will occur on that date.

The key variable is whether an Atlantic low-pressure system or North African high-pressure ridge dominates European weather patterns in late July 2026. Météo-France's seasonal outlooks, typically released in June, will provide the first substantive signal for traders. Historical analogue years—particularly 2015, 2019, and 2022, which saw significant summer heat—offer reference points for how similar atmospheric setups translated to specific temperature ranges. Any trader entering this market should monitor early-summer European weather patterns from May onwards, as these often establish the dominant circulation for July.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.