Highest temperature in Paris on June 2?

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 2 June 2026. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will resolve. Settlement depends on historical weather data from Wunderground for that specific station and date.

Early June in the Paris region typically sees daytime highs between 20–24°C, with occasional warm spells pushing into the mid-to-high 20s. The 0% reading across all ranges is unusual and likely reflects the market's nascent state rather than a genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded. Historical June data from Le Bourget shows the station reliably captures daily highs; temperatures exceeding 28°C occur roughly one year in three during this period, whilst readings below 18°C are comparatively rare.

The key variable remains atmospheric patterns in late May and early June 2026. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from Météo-France and European weather models as spring progresses, particularly any signals of an early heat dome or persistent low-pressure system. Recent climate data suggests June temperatures in northern France have drifted slightly warmer over the past decade, though single-day extremes remain difficult to predict months ahead. The settlement window closes at midday on 2 June, allowing only morning observations to influence final resolution if the station updates intraday.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.