Highest temperature in Paris on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Paris-Le Bourget Airport station will record a daily maximum temperature on 25 May 2026, with the market asking which range that figure falls into. The 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets suggests the crowd has not yet engaged meaningfully with this fixture, leaving the entire outcome space unpriced.

May temperatures at Le Bourget historically cluster around 18–22°C as daily highs, with the station's long-term May average sitting near 20°C. Extreme heat on this date remains uncommon; the airport has recorded May highs above 28°C in roughly one year per decade. The absence of any meaningful probability allocation reflects the market's early stage rather than genuine certainty about the outcome. Comparable European weather markets typically see engagement spike as settlement approaches, particularly once seasonal forecasts become available in April 2026.

Traders should monitor the European spring weather pattern as it develops through early 2026, particularly Atlantic pressure systems and any anomalous warming signals from meteorological services. The UK Met Office and Météo-France issue extended outlooks three to four weeks ahead; these forecasts will sharpen considerably by late April. Any significant heat dome affecting continental Europe in the weeks preceding 25 May would shift probability mass toward higher temperature ranges. Until then, the market's current state reflects information scarcity rather than a settled consensus, leaving room for value identification once seasonal context becomes clearer.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.