Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s July heat is defined by its marine layer, which typically caps midday temperatures well below the 80°F mark that inland valleys routinely exceed. The market currently assigns a 0% probability to any outcome implying a record-breaking heatwave, with the consensus firmly favouring the 80–81°F range at 40% and 78–79°F at 30% [1]. This pricing suggests traders view a scorching day as an extreme underdog event, treating the 80°F threshold as a distant ceiling rather than a likely floor.

Historical data from the San Francisco International Airport Station shows that July 14 has rarely breached 80°F, with most years settling between 72°F and 77°F due to the persistent Pacific fog. The current 0% implied probability for a “YES” outcome on extreme heat aligns with this pattern, framing the 80–81°F range as the favourite despite its statistical rarity. Contrarian value might sit in the 76–77°F band if the crowd has overcorrected for the 80°F ceiling, ignoring the more frequent 75°F–77°F cluster that dominates recent summers.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s marine layer forecasts for the week of 8–13 July 2026, as a breakdown in the fog could act as the primary catalyst for temperatures nudging toward 80°F. Recent climate reports indicate a slight warming trend in coastal California, yet the atmospheric river dynamics remain the dominant dependency for July heat [1]. With settlement ending 12:00 UTC on 14 July, the key watch is whether the fog lifts before noon, a condition that would validate the 80–81°F favourite and invalidate the 0% extreme heat stance.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.