Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the maximum temperature recorded at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport on 6 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance for the implied “YES” outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the narrow range being contested. Historical data frames this probability starkly: July in São Paulo typically sees daily highs around 27°C (81°F), rarely dipping below 23°C (73°F) or exceeding 32°C (89°F), with the warmest average high of the year occurring in February at 28°C (83°F)[2]. Notably, July 2023 was the hottest July in 174 years for Brazil, averaging just 16.92°C, yet this anomaly reflects a southern hemisphere winter pattern that does not align with the expected summer warmth of 2026[5]. Recent local records show highs of 27°C (80.6°F) in early July 2026, reinforcing consensus that temperatures will cluster near 24–25°C, a band commanding ~61% implied probability on competing platforms[1][7].

Traders should monitor the upcoming weather model updates from Wunderground and local meteorological bulletins, as any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind patterns could alter the peak temperature. A recent heatwave in Rio de Janeiro, which recorded a heat index of 62.3°C and ambient temperatures of 39°C, signals broader regional volatility that may influence São Paulo’s conditions, though direct causation remains unconfirmed[8][9]. The key dependency is the timing of the daily maximum, which typically occurs between 14:00 and 16:00 local time; if a cold front arrives earlier than forecast, the high could drop below the contested range. Contrarian value may sit in the 23°C band if model guidance underestimates cloud intrusion, while the consensus heavily favours 24–25°C as the most probable outcome[1]. With the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 6 July, all data must be finalised before this deadline, making real-time Wunderground updates the definitive catalyst for resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

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Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.