Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport is expected to record a peak temperature on 16 July 2026 that falls squarely within the mid-60s Fahrenheit range, a pattern consistent with the station’s typical midsummer climate. Historical data for mid-July at KSEA shows daily highs clustering between 64°F and 69°F, with the 64–65°F bin dominating recent years. This stability explains why the crowd-implied probability for any outcome above 70°F sits at 0% YES, while the market heavily favours the 64–65°F range at 68% implied probability, treating it as the clear favourite[1]. The 66–67°F bin acts as the underdog at 19%, offering a modest contrarian angle if a weak heat pulse develops, though the tight spread suggests limited upside value.

Traders should monitor the Pacific Northwest’s 5-day forecast models issued by the National Weather Service, particularly any shifts in the high-pressure ridge over the Cascades that could nudge temperatures toward the 66–67°F underdog. A recent update from the Washington State Climate Office notes that July 2026 has so far seen no significant marine layer breakdown, reinforcing the consensus for cooler highs[1]. The key catalyst is the 00:00 UTC model run on 14 July, which will determine if the ridge strengthens enough to breach 66°F. Until that data arrives, the 0% YES probability for higher ranges remains rational, but the 66–67°F bin may offer value if the ridge tightens unexpectedly.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.