Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport weather station will record a daily high temperature on 24 May 2026, with the market resolving to whichever temperature range contains that reading in Fahrenheit. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which range will validate or insufficient liquidity to establish consensus pricing.

Seattle's May climate sits in a transitional zone between spring variability and early summer stability. Historical data from the airport station shows May highs typically range between 65–75°F, with occasional warm spells pushing into the low 80s. The 30-year normal high for late May is approximately 72°F. Only rarely does the city see May temperatures exceed 85°F at Sea-Tac; the record high for the entire month stands at 93°F, set in 1960. This historical context suggests the market's zero-probability readings likely reflect ranges positioned at statistical extremes rather than genuine forecasting consensus.

Traders monitoring this market should track the National Weather Service Pacific Northwest forecast as May 2026 approaches, particularly any extended-range outlooks issued in late April. Atmospheric patterns favouring warm air advection from the interior or a blocking high-pressure system would shift probability toward higher ranges, whilst typical marine influence and cloud cover would anchor outcomes near historical norms. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, allowing only morning forecasts to influence final trading before resolution against Wunderground's recorded data.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seattle on May 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.