Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market prices the likelihood of Seoul's highest temperature on 13 August 2026 reaching any particular threshold at zero per cent, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table at Incheon International Airport Station, the official weather station for the Seoul metropolitan area, rather than summary figures elsewhere on Weather Underground.

Seoul's August temperatures have historically clustered between 28–33°C, with extreme heat events pushing into the mid-30s. The city experienced a peak of 39.6°C in August 2018 during a notable heatwave, though such outliers remain uncommon. Most years see daily highs in the 30–32°C band during mid-August, when the summer monsoon season typically moderates conditions. The current zero-probability pricing suggests the market may be anchored to a narrow consensus range, leaving potential value in either tail outcomes—particularly if climate patterns or atmospheric conditions shift unexpectedly.

Traders should monitor the Asian summer monsoon forecast and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August 2026, as these systems substantially influence Korean peninsula temperatures. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal outlooks and weekly forecasts that typically become more precise in late July. Any significant deviation from the monsoon's normal progression could push temperatures materially higher or lower than the historical August mean, creating discrepancies between current market pricing and realised outcomes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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