Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Incheon Airport’s top temperature on 7 August is trading as a **clear favourite** to stay well below the extreme heat seen elsewhere in the Seoul metro area, with the market’s current **0% YES** implying the crowd sees no chance of a very high daily maximum. The key handicapper’s point is that the contract settles off Weather Underground’s *Daily Observations* at Incheon Intl Airport Station, not any headline day-high figure, so a trader should focus on the airport reading itself rather than the broader Seoul forecast.[2][5]

Historically, August in Seoul is warm and humid, but airport stations often run a bit cooler than the city core, especially when sea breezes or cloud cover trim the afternoon peak. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Seoul shows daily highs mostly in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, while broader seasonal guides put August around 30°C and describe it as the hottest month, which supports a baseline of heat but not necessarily an outlier at the airport.[1][18][19] The contrarian angle is that a late surge towards the upper 30s °C in central Seoul does not automatically translate into the airport clearing a high settlement band, so the value may sit with ranges below the most extreme urban forecasts.[2][14]

The main catalyst is the live intraday forecast-versus-observation gap: SBS reported a Seoul daytime peak near 39°C on 7 August and said the extreme heat should ease slightly from the weekend, with heatwave warnings expanded across Greater Seoul.[2] Traders should watch whether cloud, rain or marine influence keeps Incheon below city-centre readings; several current forecast feeds lean on much milder numbers for the day, with values around the low 30s °C or even the upper 20s °C in some models.[3][4][14] On that basis, consensus looks anchored to a moderate ceiling, while the only real value spot is a contrarian tail risk of an unexpectedly hot airport observation if the heat holds through the afternoon.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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