Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the market hinges on whether Incheon International Airport records a temperature exceeding the threshold that currently commands a 0% implied probability for a “YES” outcome. This is not a speculative bet on a future anomaly but a wager grounded in a century of Seoul’s early July heat patterns, where temperatures rarely breach the upper limits required to trigger resolution. The crowd’s consensus sits firmly on the underdog, assuming that the historical ceiling for early July will hold, yet value may lurk in the contrarian angle that recent record-breaking trends could push temperatures higher than anticipated.

Historically, Seoul’s early July days have seen highs rarely exceed 91°F (32.8°C), with the average daily high climbing from 81°F to 85°F (27.2°C to 29.4°C) across the month[2]. However, 2024 shattered this norm when Seoul reached 37.7°C (99.9°F) on 1 July—the highest early July temperature in 117 years of records[5]. This precedent suggests that while the 0% probability reflects a belief in stability, the underdog’s value is amplified by the possibility of a repeat of such extreme outliers. Traders should watch for announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding tropical night streaks, which have recently broken century-old records with overnight temperatures above 25°C for 22 consecutive nights[3]. Additionally, the 2025 summer saw South Korea endure its second-hottest July since 1973, with an average of 27.1°C (80.7°F)[4], indicating a persistent upward trend in heat that could influence 2026’s outcome. The settlement window ends 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z, and the resolution source is Wunderground’s highest temperature for Incheon Airport on that day, making real-time monitoring of tropical night forecasts critical.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.