Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces a mid-July heat spike as traders assess whether the Incheon International Airport station will breach its typical early-July ceiling. The current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the YES outcome, marking the favourite as the underdog in a market where consensus expects temperatures to remain within the standard 22°C–32°C band observed in the first ten days of July[4]. Historical data frames this extreme pricing: while Seoul recorded 37.8°C in early July 2023—the hottest such reading in 117 years[1][6]—such outliers are rare, and the average July high remains 88°F (31.1°C)[5]. The 0% probability suggests the market views a record-breaking spike as statistically negligible, yet climatological models often assign non-zero chances to extreme heat events when synoptic patterns align.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily synoptic updates and global ensemble forecasts, which currently point to a weak pattern with light winds and moderate humidity—conditions that typically support mid-range outcomes rather than extremes[4]. A shift toward a high-pressure ridge or stagnant air mass could act as the catalyst for a contrarian angle, pushing temperatures toward the 35°C+ threshold seen in 2023. Recent news from Anadolu Ajansı confirms that South Korea is experiencing its second-hottest July since 1973, with Seoul hitting 37.7°C in early July 2023, reinforcing the value in watching for similar atmospheric setups[6][7]. With settlement closing at 12:00 UTC on 11 July 2026, any model update in the final 24 hours could sharply alter the implied probability, especially if volume remains thin.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.