Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is bracing for peak summer heat as the settlement window for the 12 July 2026 high-temperature market closes within hours. The crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the current favourite, reflecting a consensus that extreme heat is unlikely despite the region’s recent trajectory of record-breaking warmth. Historical data frames this scepticism: July in Seoul typically sees highs rarely exceeding 33°C, though 2025 shattered precedents with 22 consecutive “tropical nights” above 25°C and an all-time national record of 41.0°C at Hongcheon [1][2]. Even so, the Incheon International Airport station—where this market resolves—has not matched those inland extremes, with average July highs hovering near 30°C and rarely breaching 33°C [5][9].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground readings for the Incheon station as the 12:00 UTC deadline approaches, since resolution hinges solely on the highest recorded temperature for that day [10]. The key catalyst is the North Pacific high-pressure system, which historically drives humid, scorching conditions into the capital region, occasionally pushing temperatures toward 35°C [9]. Recent anomalies, including South Korea’s second-hottest July since 1973 and Seoul’s 37.7°C peak in early July 2025, suggest the underdog (extreme heat) may hold latent value if the high-pressure ridge intensifies unexpectedly [7][8]. With the market pricing in near-zero chance of a spike, any deviation above 33°C would represent a sharp contrarian angle against the prevailing 0% implied probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.