Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is set to face peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station expected to record a daily high between 31°C and 34°C. The crowd-implied probability for any outcome registering as “YES” sits at 0%, reflecting a market that has fully priced in a specific temperature range rather than a binary event, yet the leading consensus heavily favours 32°C at 42% and 33°C at 32%[1]. This distribution mirrors historical precedents where early July highs in Seoul typically hover around 81–85°F (27–29°C), rarely exceeding 91°F (33°C) unless amplified by urban heat or stalled steering patterns[5].

Recent anomalies frame the current pricing: in early July 2024, Seoul hit 37.7°C, the hottest early July in 117 years, while South Korea later recorded an all-time peak of 41.0°C in Hongcheon[2][4][6]. However, such extremes are outliers; the consensus spread of 31–33°C suggests traders view typhoon influences farther south and model uncertainty on steering patterns as dampening factors that could suppress peaks by 1–2°C[1]. The value spot likely lies contrarianly in 34°C or higher (11.2%), which offers exposure to a heatwave breakout if urban amplification overrides regional cooling trends[1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Incheon station, as settlement depends exclusively on its highest recorded temperature for the day[1]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in typhoon tracks south of the Korean Peninsula and announcements on urban heat advisories, which can amplify local peaks. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, the market’s tight odds around 32–33°C reflect a collective view that record-breaking heat is unlikely, though the 11.2% probability for 34°C+ remains a speculative underdog angle for those betting on a breakout[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

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FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

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How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.