Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is bracing for peak midsummer heat as the Incheon International Airport station records its daily maximum on 16 July 2026, the sole determinant for this weather market. The crowd currently assigns a 0% implied probability to the YES outcome, suggesting consensus that the temperature will fall outside the specified range, yet this flat pricing ignores the region’s volatile thermal history.

Historical data frames this as a classic underdog scenario where contrarian value often hides in extreme outliers. In late July 2025, South Korea neared 40°C as its hottest summer returned in seven years, with forecasts predicting highs of 32–37°C through early August under persistent tropical nights and no significant rainfall [2]. Such records indicate that mid-July temperatures in Seoul frequently breach 35°C, making a 0% market stance on a high-temperature range potentially mispriced against the KMA’s own projections for sustained above-average heat [2].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heat advisories and real-time wunderground readings for the Incheon station, as these are the definitive settlement catalysts. The absence of rainfall and continued above-average temperatures through early August 2025 signal a high-risk environment for extreme heat spikes that could invalidate the current consensus [2]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 16 July 2026, any sudden shift in the tropical night pattern or a surprise heat dome announcement could instantly reprice the market from its current dead zero.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.