Highest temperature in Seoul on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 18 July 2026. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome occurring, which reflects the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date—a timing constraint that eliminates meaningful trading activity once the actual reading becomes known locally.

Seoul's July climate sits firmly within the East Asian summer monsoon season, with historical highs typically ranging between 28–32°C at the airport station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders view the market as either too illiquid to engage with or are waiting for the settlement window to narrow further. However, this reflects market mechanics rather than weather uncertainty. Mid-July temperatures in Seoul rarely deviate dramatically from the seasonal norm, though occasional heat waves can push readings toward 35°C. Comparable years show consistency: the airport station's July maximums cluster tightly around the 30°C mark, with extreme outliers rare.

The relevant catalyst is the East Asian summer weather pattern developing through June and early July 2026. The Korea Meteorological Administration issues seasonal forecasts in May and updates them monthly; their June 2026 outlook will signal whether anomalous heat or cooler conditions are expected. Traders should monitor whether any tropical systems track toward the Korean peninsula in mid-July, as these occasionally suppress temperatures. The market's practical constraint—settlement at noon UTC, roughly 21:00 local time in Seoul—means the final reading will be known before the window closes, eliminating genuine uncertainty for late traders.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.