Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on whether Incheon International Airport records a peak temperature exceeding 27°C on 2 July 2026, a threshold currently dismissed by the crowd with a 0% implied probability for any higher outcome. Historical patterns for Seoul in July show average highs centreing around 27°C, with humidity often pushing afternoons to feel warmer, yet monsoon rains frequently cap extremes before they reach 30°C+. The market’s tight clustering around 27–29°C, reflecting over 70% combined probability, suggests model consensus on moderate instability rather than extreme heat, leaving cooler or hotter outliers as uncertain variables dependent on cloud timing and precipitation bursts[1][2].

Traders should watch the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for heatwave alerts and monsoon progression, as these directly dictate whether cloud cover suppresses peaks or if clear skies allow temperatures to breach the 28°C barrier[7]. Recent data indicates July 1 saw a surge in 30°C probability, hinting that early July can swing volatile, but the monsoon season typically spans June to July, bringing short, heavy rains that disrupt sustained heatwaves[4][5]. The value spot likely sits contrarian to the 0% consensus if forecast models shift towards clearer skies, offering a potential underdog play on the 28°C or 29°C ranges where current pricing may understate the risk of a dry, humid spike[1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.