Highest temperature in Seoul on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on whether Incheon International Airport will record a temperature exceeding 37.7°C on 3 July 2026, a threshold that currently stands at a crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome. This near-zero valuation suggests the consensus firmly believes early July heat in the Seoul region will remain within historical norms, rarely breaching the 35°C mark despite rising global temperatures.

Historical data frames this probability with stark clarity: Seoul’s average July highs climb from 81°F to 85°F, rarely exceeding 91°F (32.8°C), while the absolute record for early July sits at 37.7°C, set in 2023 after 117 years of records [1][3][6]. That 2023 spike was an anomaly driven by a specific heat dome, not a recurring pattern, and South Korea’s second-hottest July in 2025 averaged only 27.1°C, reinforcing that sustained extremes above 37°C are statistically improbable for this date [4]. The 0% market price likely reflects this historical rarity, yet contrarian value may exist if monsoon delays or urban heat amplification create an unforecasted spike, a scenario the crowd has dismissed entirely.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s weekly monsoon forecasts and any sudden shifts in the East Asian high-pressure system, which could trap heat over the Incheon basin. Recent reports note South Korea endured record-breaking summer heat in August 2025, but July typically sees more rainfall that suppresses peak temperatures [4]. A contrarian angle would bet on a delayed monsoon onset combined with a stagnant high-pressure ridge, a dependency that has not yet triggered but could materialise if atmospheric models shift in the coming weeks. No official announcements currently predict such an extreme, leaving the market heavily skewed toward the underdog outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.