Highest temperature in Seoul on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime heat recorded at Incheon International Airport on 5 July 2026, a date that historically sits within Seoul’s most volatile summer window. Current crowd-implied probability for a specific high-temperature range is 0% YES, suggesting the consensus believes the market will resolve to a lower bracket or that the event is impossible under current conditions. This aligns with the view that early July rarely breaches the extreme thresholds seen in late summer, yet recent data frames a contrarian angle. Since modern records began in 1973, Korea’s hottest July was in 1994, averaging 27.7°C, while July 2025 was the second-hottest on record at 27.1°C nationwide[1]. Incheon and Seoul have seen spikes reaching 37.7°C in early July, the highest in 117 years, indicating that 0% pricing may overlook value spots where the underdog heatwave could materialise[6].

Traders must watch the North Pacific high-pressure system’s intensity, which drives hot, humid air into the region and can push temperatures to 35°C or higher on occasion[8]. The catalyst for a breakout is the timing of the monsoon front’s retreat; delays here often trap heat, creating tropical nights that linger well into the morning, as seen in the longest stretch of such nights in 117 years[7]. Recent reports confirm South Korea endured record-breaking summer heat, with average temperatures ending 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, reinforcing the risk of contrarian value if the market underestimates early July extremes[4]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, meaning the final reading depends on the precise hour of peak temperature, a dependency that could swing the outcome if the heat spike occurs just before or after the cut-off.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.