Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 10 June 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome—a state that typically reflects insufficient trading activity rather than genuine certainty about the weather. Seoul's early June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and summer, with historical daily highs averaging 24–26°C but capable of reaching 30°C or beyond during warm spells. The 0% implied probability suggests the market lacks liquidity or participants, making it difficult to discern whether traders genuinely expect moderate temperatures or whether the market simply hasn't attracted sufficient interest to establish meaningful odds.

Historical June weather patterns in Seoul show considerable variability year to year. The past decade has produced June 10th highs ranging from approximately 20°C during cooler years to 31°C during warmer ones, with the most common range clustering between 24–28°C. This spread indicates that multiple temperature bands carry genuine possibility, yet the crowd's complete absence of probability allocation across all ranges suggests the market may be awaiting either a significant weather forecast update or simply more traders entering positions.

The key catalyst will be the extended-range forecast issued by the Korea Meteorological Administration in late May 2026, which typically provides guidance on early June conditions. Any significant heat advisory or unusual atmospheric pattern flagged in that period could shift expectations materially. Until then, the market's current state reflects a void rather than a consensus view, leaving substantial room for initial traders to establish positions based on seasonal norms and their own weather expectations.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.