Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

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Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at Incheon International Airport on 11 June 2026, measured in Celsius and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or treating this as a placeholder market awaiting clearer range definitions.

Seoul's early June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical highs typically ranging from 26°C to 29°C at Incheon. The 11th falls before the onset of the monsoon season, which generally arrives in late June, meaning atmospheric conditions should favour dry, warming patterns. Comparable years show considerable variance—June 2022 saw temperatures peak at 28°C on the 11th, whilst June 2019 reached 30°C on that date. This historical spread of roughly 2–3°C between cooler and warmer years reflects the sensitivity of early-summer Seoul weather to upper-level pressure systems and the position of the Pacific high-pressure zone.

The primary catalyst remains the large-scale atmospheric setup developing across East Asia in the weeks preceding mid-June 2026. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and track whether the North Pacific subtropical high extends northwestward earlier than climatological norms, which would push temperatures toward the upper end of the range. Any significant heat dome formation across the region in early June would signal elevated probabilities for readings above 29°C, whilst a delayed warming pattern or transient cloud cover could anchor outcomes in the 26–28°C band.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Who Will Win — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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