Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 12 June 2026 at zero probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a technical issue with the market setup or extreme confidence that no outcome will occur. In reality, a temperature reading will almost certainly be recorded on that date, making this a mispricing worth examining. Seoul's early summer climate typically produces daily highs between 24–28°C in mid-June, with occasional spikes toward 30°C during warm spells. The 0% implied probability across all brackets contradicts historical weather patterns and the certainty of measurement.

Historical data from Incheon Airport shows June temperatures rarely exceed 32°C, with the month's average high around 26°C. The settlement mechanism depends on Wunderground's historical weather database, which reliably captures airport station data. Traders should verify that the market's outcome brackets are properly defined and that the resolution source is accessible on the settlement date. Recent Korean meteorological forecasts for early summer 2026 are not yet published, but seasonal patterns suggest a high-pressure system typical of early monsoon season could push temperatures toward the upper end of the normal range. The fundamental issue here is that the crowd has priced this as if no temperature will be recorded, when the physical certainty of a reading makes this a contrarian opportunity in whichever bracket ultimately contains the actual high.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.