Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Market context

The settlement hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 13 June 2026, measured in Celsius. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature range or have not yet engaged with this market. Seoul's early-summer climate typically produces warm but not extreme conditions at this time of year, with historical June averages around 20–25°C and peaks occasionally reaching 28–30°C depending on weather systems in place.

Seoul's mid-June temperatures show considerable variability year to year. The region experiences transition from late spring into early summer, with occasional heat waves pushing readings above 30°C, though such extremes remain less common than sustained warmth in the 24–28°C band. Comparable historical data from Incheon Airport—the official measurement station—reveals that whilst temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s are routine, outlier days with readings above 30°C do occur roughly once every few years during this period. The absence of trading activity at 0% suggests the market may be awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or simply lacks trader participation.

The key variable for June 2026 will be whether a high-pressure system or warm air mass settles over the Korean peninsula in the days leading up to the 13th. Traders should monitor spring weather patterns through May and early June, particularly any announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding seasonal outlooks. Typhoon activity, whilst uncommon in mid-June, can occasionally suppress temperatures if systems approach from the south. Current consensus appears absent; value may exist once seasonal forecasts solidify closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.