Highest temperature in Seoul on June 14?

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Market context

The settlement hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 14 June 2026, measured in Celsius. The crowd currently assigns zero probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which range will capture the day's peak.

Seoul's June climate sits firmly in early summer, with historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration showing average highs around 26–28°C during this period. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges is unusual for a weather market with a defined settlement source and clear measurement protocol. Comparable mid-June forecasting in Seoul typically sees clustering around the 25–30°C bands, with occasional excursions into the 30–35°C range during heat waves. The complete absence of probability allocation suggests traders may be waiting for nearer-term forecasts or questioning the market's liquidity rather than expecting genuinely extreme conditions.

The key catalyst is the release of medium-range weather forecasts in the week preceding 14 June 2026. South Korea's meteorological agency and international models (GFS, ECMWF) will provide increasingly precise temperature projections as the date approaches. Any significant heat advisory or unusual atmospheric setup—such as a Tibetan high-pressure system pushing warm air southeastward—would shift expectations materially. Until such forecasts materialise, traders lack concrete directional signals, explaining the flat probability distribution and the apparent reluctance to commit capital to any single temperature band.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.