Highest temperature in Seoul on June 15?

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Market context

The settlement hinges on the maximum temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 15 June 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome. Seoul's mid-June climate sits firmly in early summer, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 26–28°C, though the city occasionally experiences heat waves that push temperatures above 30°C. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current state rather than a meaningful forecast; traders have yet to price in the seasonal baseline or account for inter-annual variability in early summer conditions.

Historical records from Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation in mid-June temperatures. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest temperatures on 15 June ranged from 22°C to 31°C, with most years clustering around 25–28°C. This spread indicates that whilst a cool day remains plausible, temperatures in the upper 20s are the statistical centre of gravity. The current zero-probability reading suggests the market has not yet attracted substantive participation; value likely exists in identifying which temperature band represents the true consensus expectation rather than betting against an established favourite.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration in the weeks preceding mid-June 2026. Broader patterns—including whether a high-pressure system or monsoon influence dominates East Asia that month—will shape outcomes. The settlement mechanism via Wunderground's historical data is straightforward, removing ambiguity around measurement location or methodology once the date passes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.