Highest temperature in Seoul on June 16?

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Market context

On 16 June 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and sorted into temperature bands. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any specific outcome, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which range will resolve. Settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather database for that single day.

Mid-June in Seoul typically sits within the early monsoon season, with average highs around 26–28°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. Historical precedent matters here: Seoul has recorded June highs exceeding 33°C in roughly one in five years over the past two decades, whilst temperatures below 20°C on this date are rare. The zero probability reading reflects no consensus favourite rather than genuine impossibility across all ranges. Traders should examine which bands the market actually offers; if lower ranges (20–25°C) carry material odds, they represent undervalued positions given Seoul's typical June climate.

The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal outlooks in May, which will inform whether 2026 tracking suggests an early heat event or cooler-than-average conditions. El Niño or La Niña patterns influence East Asian summer temperatures substantially. Traders should monitor late-May forecasts and any advisory warnings from KMA; an early monsoon onset could suppress highs, whilst a high-pressure system over the peninsula would drive them upward. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 16 June, giving traders access to real-time forecasts within 48 hours of resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.