Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

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Market context

On 24 June 2026, the Incheon International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a metric that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The crowd-implied probability of a “YES” resolution sits at 0%, suggesting the consensus expects the temperature to remain well below the highest threshold. This stark valuation ignores the accelerating heat trend in Korea, where the three hottest summers—1994, 2018, and 2024—each surpassed the previous record, with heat wave days increasing steadily since 1973[1]. Historical averages for Seoul in June show daily highs climbing from 77°F to 81°F, rarely exceeding 87°F, yet the all-time national record reached 41.0°C (105.8°F) in Hongcheon, and Seoul itself hit 39.6°C in 2018[2][4][8]. The current 0% probability appears to be a contrarian underdog bet, potentially overlooking the value in a scenario where extreme heat events become more frequent.

Traders should monitor real-time weather forecasts from Wunderground and PredictWind for the Incheon area, as these platforms will provide the official resolution data[3][7]. A key catalyst is the ongoing climate shift alert for South Korea, where average temperatures in August 2025 were 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 norm, indicating a persistent warming pattern that could elevate June temperatures beyond historical averages[6]. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC on 24 June, any sudden spike in temperature recorded before that time could invalidate the 0% consensus. The value spot lies in betting against the crowd’s assumption of cool weather, given the documented rise in extreme heat events and the recent 91°F peak recorded on 19 June 2026 at the same station[3]. This is a handicapper’s note: the underdog (high temperature) may offer value if the market fails to account for Korea’s escalating heat trajectory.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.