Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7?

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Market context

The market seeks the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 7 June 2026, with settlement based on Wunderground's historical weather data for that station. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are not backing any specific temperature range, indicating either genuine uncertainty about which bracket will resolve or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

Seoul's early June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and summer onset. Historical data from Incheon Airport shows June 7 temperatures typically range between 20–28°C, with occasional peaks near 30°C during warmer years. The 2020 reading for this date was 27.2°C; 2019 recorded 24.1°C. These patterns reflect the monsoon season's approach, when warm, humid air masses from the Pacific begin asserting influence over the Korean peninsula. The current flat probability distribution suggests the market lacks consensus on whether 2026 will track toward the cooler or warmer end of this historical band.

Traders monitoring this market should track spring 2026 temperature anomalies across East Asia and any early-season heat waves affecting the region. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues seasonal outlooks by May, which could shift expectations if they signal above-normal June temperatures. Sea surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea and broader Pacific patterns will influence whether Incheon experiences a cooler-than-average or warmer-than-average early June. Current atmospheric indices and any El Niño or La Niña conditions active in spring 2026 will be material to the eventual outcome.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Who Will Win triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.