Highest temperature in Seoul on May 26?

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Market context

The market is pricing the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 26 May 2026 at zero probability across all temperature bands, despite Seoul's late-spring climate being well-documented. This settlement date falls during the transition toward summer conditions in South Korea, when daily highs typically range between 23–28°C, with occasional warm spells pushing toward 30°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either a technical issue with market initialisation or extreme underestimation of baseline seasonal norms.

Historical data from Incheon Airport shows May temperatures cluster predictably. Over the past decade, 26 May highs have ranged from 19°C to 29°C, with the median around 24–25°C. The most common outcome sits in the 23–27°C band, accounting for roughly 60% of observations. Warmer years occasionally breach 28°C, whilst cooler springs occasionally dip below 20°C. The current zero-probability pricing contradicts this established pattern entirely, suggesting the market may be awaiting threshold clarification or resolution mechanics confirmation rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about Seoul's weather.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of anomalous warming or cooling patterns. The settlement mechanism depends on Wunderground's historical records for Incheon, which typically finalise within 24–48 hours of the observation date. Any significant weather system—monsoon onset, heat dome, or cold front—would shift outcomes materially, but such events remain unforecastable at this distance. The current pricing offers no meaningful guidance; value assessment requires waiting for temperature bands to be properly populated and priced.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Who Will Win is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Who Will Win?

Zero. Who Will Win routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.