Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 13 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome occurring, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific range or data unavailability at market creation. August in Shanghai typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, meaning only morning and early afternoon readings will factor into the final determination.

Historical August temperatures at Pudong show that extreme heat is routine rather than exceptional. Between 2015 and 2024, the station recorded daily maxima exceeding 35°C on roughly 60–70% of August days, with several years posting readings above 37°C. The 2013 heat wave pushed temperatures to 40.6°C, establishing that Shanghai's summer ceiling extends well beyond typical ranges. Current zero probability pricing likely reflects either technical market setup issues or traders waiting for seasonal forecasts to firm up before committing capital.

The China Meteorological Administration releases 10-day forecasts regularly, with mid-August predictions typically available by late July 2026. La Niña or El Niño conditions heading into northern hemisphere summer will influence whether monsoon patterns deliver cooler, wetter conditions or reinforce heat dome persistence. Traders should monitor whether tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific disrupts Shanghai's weather window; such systems can dramatically suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, though they rarely affect Pudong's daily high if they arrive after midday.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.