Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s 8 August temperature market is effectively a bet on whether the city clears the low-30s Celsius mark at Pudong Airport, with the crowd currently pricing **0% YES**. That makes the **NO** side the clear favourite, but the implied probability is so extreme that any normal late-summer warmth is already embedded; the only meaningful value for a contrarian YES view would be a genuine heat spike rather than a routine August day. The settlement source matters too: the market will use Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table for Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, so the trade should be read off the observed station high, not the headline day summary.

Historically, Shanghai’s August climate is hot and humid, with typical highs around **32–33°C** and lows around **26–27°C**, which means a reading in the low-30s is ordinary rather than exceptional.[2][13][15] Recent and comparable August cases also show how quickly the market can move if the airport station posts a strong daytime peak: Weather Underground’s history page shows Shanghai reaching **95°F** on 7 August 2026, while other historical August entries have reached the mid-30s Celsius in hotter years.[1][4][7] That framing leaves the favourite still **NO**, but the contrarian angle is that the market may be over-discounting a late-morning or early-afternoon surge if cloud cover breaks briefly.

For traders, the key catalysts are the final observed temperatures recorded at Pudong between the morning and early afternoon local window, plus any weather-system changes that affect cloud, rain or sea-breeze suppression of the daytime high. Weather Underground’s daily history for Shanghai already shows warm conditions, with 8 August 2026 indicated at **93°F / 86°F** in the weekly history table, which sits comfortably in the high-20s to low-30s Celsius range and supports the current **NO** consensus.[1] The value spot, if any, is on a higher temperature band only if the station prints above that range in the Daily Observations table, because the settlement rule gives that table priority over the summary display.[11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 8? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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