Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the single highest temperature reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 14 July 2026, with settlement based on Wunderground historical data. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete market formation or uncertainty about which temperature bands will be offered at resolution.

Shanghai's July climate sits firmly in the East Asian summer monsoon season, with mean daily highs around 32°C and extremes regularly exceeding 35°C. Historical records show the city has recorded temperatures above 40°C during July heatwaves, though such events remain comparatively rare. The 0% implied probability across all ranges indicates the market has not yet crystallised trader conviction around specific temperature thresholds. Without visibility on the actual resolution brackets, assessing value requires understanding that mid-to-high 30s readings (34–37°C) represent the statistical centre of gravity for Shanghai's July weather, whilst anything below 30°C or above 38°C would constitute a meaningful deviation from seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts as mid-July approaches, particularly any alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heatwaves or unusual pressure systems. The East Asian summer monsoon's strength in 2026 will materially influence whether Shanghai experiences typical July heat or an anomalous pattern. Local air quality and humidity levels, often reported by Shanghai's environmental authorities, can signal the presence of high-pressure systems that drive extreme temperatures. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 14 July, meaning the market resolves to the peak temperature recorded across the full calendar day at the airport station.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.