Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's peak temperature on 18 July 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records. The crowd currently implies 0% probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or insufficient liquidity in early trading. July is Shanghai's hottest month, with average highs around 32–33°C, though daily extremes frequently exceed 35°C during summer heat waves.

Historical data from the past decade shows Shanghai regularly records July peaks between 34–38°C, with occasional spikes above 39°C during particularly intense heat events. The 0% implied probability across all ranges reflects the market's nascent stage rather than any genuine consensus that temperatures will fall outside normal summer bounds. Traders should recognise that mid-July typically sits within the city's peak heat window, making moderate-to-high temperature bands (35–38°C) statistically favourable relative to cooler ranges. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 18 July, capturing only morning and early afternoon readings, which may suppress the recorded maximum compared to full-day measurements.

Catalysts include the East Asian summer monsoon pattern and any tropical cyclone activity affecting the region in early-to-mid July. China's meteorological authority publishes daily forecasts and historical comparisons; traders should monitor whether any significant weather systems are forecast to bring cloud cover or precipitation to Shanghai during that week. Current atmospheric conditions and seasonal climate models will become more reliable guides as the market date approaches, though the 0% starting position suggests early traders may find value in any temperature band once initial pricing emerges.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 18? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.