Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 28 July 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either incomplete market formation or extreme confidence in a particular temperature band. July represents peak summer in Shanghai, with the city experiencing its hottest conditions of the year; historical July maxima typically range between 32–36°C, though extreme heat events can push readings above 37°C.

Shanghai's summer temperatures have shown measurable variation across recent decades. The period from 2010 onwards recorded several days exceeding 37°C in late July, whilst cooler summers saw maxima closer to 32–33°C. The 2022 heatwave pushed temperatures to 40.9°C on 13 July, the highest on record for the city. Understanding this distribution matters because the zero-probability reading suggests traders may be waiting for clearer atmospheric forecasts before committing capital, or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to reflect genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will occur.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by China's meteorological authority in early July 2026, particularly any alerts regarding heat domes or monsoon activity affecting the Yangtze River Delta region. El Niño and La Niña phases influence East Asian summer temperatures; current oceanic conditions and their projected evolution through mid-2026 will shape whether July leans toward historical averages or extremes. The Shanghai municipal government typically issues heat warnings when temperatures approach 35°C, providing a secondary signal of atmospheric conditions as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Who Will Win, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.