Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s airport temperature peak on 31 July is priced as an extreme longshot, with the market implying **0% YES** even though midsummer in the city is normally very warm. July averages for Shanghai are around **31–32°C** for daily highs, with several historical summaries putting typical July highs near the low 30s and rainfall frequent but not enough to cap temperatures by itself.[1][4][18] That makes the obvious favourite the *over* on any range that sits comfortably below the mid-30s, while the underdog case is a cooler, cloudier day that keeps the airport reading down.

The historical frame is straightforward: late-July Shanghai often delivers upper-30s heat, and recent 31 July observations across the city include highs of **31°C to 37°C** in 2021–2024, with 2024 especially hot at **37°C**.[2] Broader Shanghai records also show a recent heat-wave environment, including a citywide 12-day stretch of **37°C or above** in late July and early August 2024.[10] For handicappers, that argues the consensus may be underestimating the tail risk of a sharp heat spike; the value spot is usually on higher ranges if the listed bands still assume a merely average summer day rather than a proper extreme.

The catalysts to watch are the same ones that move any airport max-temperature market: cloud cover, afternoon thunderstorm timing, and any shift in the monsoon pattern that limits solar heating. At the Pudong station specifically, the resolution will come from the day’s highest reading on Wunderground, so late-afternoon warmth matters more than the morning start. With the settlement window ending at **12:00 UTC**, traders should focus on the Shanghai local afternoon and any forecast updates from the major weather services rather than on overnight conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Who Will Win. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Who Will Win trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.