Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a metric that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the "YES" outcome, suggesting the consensus believes the temperature will fall outside the favoured range. Historically, July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs reaching 87°F (30.5°C) and frequently exceeding 95°F (35°C) for 7–15 days each year[2][9]. Daily highs typically climb from 84°F to 88°F, rarely dipping below 75°F or surpassing 95°F, while solar energy input gradually increases through the month[1]. This historical baseline frames the 0% probability as a potential underdog value spot, given that extreme heat is a regular feature of the season rather than an anomaly.

Traders should monitor immediate weather catalysts, particularly the afternoon thunderstorm forecasted for today, which could temporarily suppress peak temperatures[6]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s recorded high for all times on 5 July, making real-time cloud cover and humidity critical variables. Recent meteorological data indicates China is experiencing its hottest summer in 60 years, with average temperatures reaching a record 21.15°C, suggesting a broader trend of elevated heat that may push Shanghai’s peak beyond typical ranges[8]. While the consensus leans contrarian against the "YES" outcome, the value may sit with the underdog position if the record-breaking national heatwave extends to Pudong, overriding the local thunderstorm’s cooling effect. The implied probability of 0% appears to ignore this systemic heat anomaly, creating a potential mispricing for those who track the broader climatic shift.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.